Bio-Measures Able to Predict with 77% Accuracy an Online Communities Rating of Viral Video Content

This afternoon, Jeremi Karnell, President and Co-Founder of One to One Interactive & Dr. Carl Marci, Chief Science Officer and Co-Founder of Innerscope Research will present the results of a preliminary research study both firms conducted with the hopes to identify if bio-measures can help predict the success of viral video content at the 2nd Annual Global Marketing Summit in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

One to One Interactive and Innerscope Research had 25 individuals observe 11 viral videos that were uploaded to NewGrounds.com.  Beyond having the distinction of being one of the original and largest flash portals on the web, Newground's  was also chosen due to it's user communities rating of each piece of content via a 1-10 scale.  Our hypothesis was that neurological measures of media engagement could accurately predict the ratings that the NewGrounds online community assigned to viral content.  Below is a chart that highlights the NewGround metrics associated with the 11 viral videos used in the study:

    

The research participants were all active NewGrounds.com community members who were between the ages of 25-34 years in age.  While observing the 11 viral videos, each participant wore Innerscope's state-of-the-art smart clothing which translated noninvasive measures of brain activity into an easy to interpret, time-locked index of emotional engagement.

The specific biological responses measured were:

• Skin Conductivity
• Heart Rate
• Respiration
• Motion
• Eye Tracking

The data that was captured was processed through an algorithm  that Innerscope Research developed to derive a single measure of media engagement.  This measure specifically calculates:

Synchrony = the degree to which an audience’s state uniformly changes when exposed to a media stimulus

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Intensity = the cumulative strength of physiologic response to a media stimulus

(Journal of Advertising Research, 2006; 46: 381-387)

Below is a chart that highlights the Innerscope metrics associated with the 11 viral videos used in the study:

Once the above data was collected, One to One Interactive developed multiple regression models to determine if a video’s rank score on the NewGrounds website could be predicted from the results of the study.  Indeed, the results of the analysis revealed that the reviewer assigned score (1-10) on the New Grounds website could be predicted with an accuracy of 76.8%.  Chart provided below:

This is the first of multiple studies planned by One to One Interactive and Innerscope Research.  Additional research will focus on the following questions:

• Can neuromarketing techniques serve as valid indicators of viral distribution beyond ranking?
• Do neuromarketing techniques predict behaviors in other media platforms?
• Are neuromarketing techniques able to standardize measures of engagement across converging media channels?

Please send an email to info@onetooneinteractive.com with "Research" as the subject line to recieve a  PDF version of the presentation.

note: Special thanks goes Michale Lodge, One to One Interactive Business Analyst, for his assistance with this  project.